Canada May Hike Wednesday. The Fed May Not. The Loonie Is Listening.
Wednesday is a double-header. The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision at 9:45am ET, and the Fed follows at 2pm. Markets price roughly an 80% chance that the Bank of Canada raises its policy rate to 2.50%, its first move in a year, after Governor Tiff Macklem signalled higher inflation forecasts. A week ago, a hold looked likely. The Fed is expected to hold at 3.75% to 4%, with a December hike widely expected.
The loonie has been pricing it in. USD/CAD slid below 1.40 on Friday for its lowest level in a month, extending a seven-day losing streak, and sits near 1.4015 today, or about 71 cents U.S. That has erased roughly half of the U.S. dollar’s September rally. A firmer loonie trims the Canadian price of anything priced globally, which is why Bitcoin is down about 3% in U.S. dollars this week but 3.7% in Canadian dollars.
Politics added its own news. British Columbia voters ended nine years of NDP government on Saturday, giving the Conservatives under Lorne Doerkson a majority with 64 of 93 seats, according to unofficial results. Premier David Eby, who called the snap election two years early to win a stronger hand against U.S. tariffs, resigned as NDP leader. Doerkson campaigned on affordability, lower taxes and more energy production, and it is B.C.’s first Conservative government in nearly a century.
On trade, President Trump said Canada is working hard on a deal, and the White House reshuffled its 50% tariff list on Canadian goods. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada could sign right away if Washington were ready, and Ottawa and Ontario unveiled a multibillion-dollar plan for tariff-hit manufacturers on Wednesday. RapidEX is a Canadian company built for Canadians watching the loonie as closely as the market, with fast funding, real human support, and 100+ locations across the country.
Market Intelligence & Action
Weekly Snapshot (October 19 to October 26, 2026)
Another red week. A sharp midweek selloff in U.S. tech stocks, Brent crude above $110 a barrel, and a 10-year Treasury yield near 5% weighed on risk assets, and U.S. Bitcoin ETFs lost $635.6 million on Thursday, their largest single day since June. Bitcoin slipped below $80,000 USD over the weekend before steadying near $80,100. A firmer loonie made Canadian-dollar declines larger: Bitcoin is down 3.7%, Ethereum 4.8%, Litecoin 7.1%, gold 3.9%, and silver 7.1%.
| Asset | Week Open (CAD) | Current Level (CAD) | 7-Day Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin (BTC | $116,400 | $112,100 | -3.7% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $3,410 | $3,245 | -4.8% |
| Litecoin (LTC) | $85 | $79 | -7.1% |
| USD Coin (USDC) | $1.41 | $1.40 | -0.7% |
| Gold (XAU/oz) | $5,850 | $5,620 | -3.9% |
| Silver (XAG.oz) | $81.30 | $75.50 | -7.1% |
This Week’s Updates
1. Canada: Economists Split Over a Bank of Canada Hike
A Reuters poll of 34 economists taken October 21 to 23 found 19 now expect the Bank of Canada to raise its rate to 2.50% on Wednesday, a reversal from the previous poll, when 80% expected a hold through year end. Most also see one more hike by March. TD Securities disagrees, calling an October move a needless risk and expecting a hold, then a hike in December, because core inflation measures remain soft. The Bank’s updated forecasts arrive the same morning. For Canadians, a hike would lift borrowing costs on variable-rate loans and lines of credit.
Pro Tip: A central bank decision is about the message as much as the move. Markets already price most of a hike, so the Bank’s guidance on what comes next, and its new inflation forecasts, may move the loonie more than the hike itself.
2. Industry News: Biggest Bitcoin ETF Outflow Since June, and Ether Funds Down $1.18B
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs took in about $1.08 billion over three sessions, then lost $635.6 million on Thursday, their largest single-day outflow since June, and another $137.9 million on Friday. The funds are down roughly $314 million for October, while Ether ETFs are down about $1.18 billion for the month. The Ethereum Foundation also postponed a test of its Glamsterdam upgrade on the Hoodi test network that had been set for Monday. Litecoin fell about 6% in U.S. dollars to roughly $56.50.
Market Insight: One analysis put the ETFs’ estimated average purchase price near $81,500, close to where Bitcoin has traded this week. When prices hover near what recent buyers paid, flows can turn quickly in either direction, so Wednesday and Thursday’s ETF numbers are worth watching.
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The RapidEX Knowledge Centre
The Lightning Network: When Bitcoin Decided to Stop Being Slow
Have you ever tried to pay for something with Bitcoin and watched the seconds tick by? Regular Bitcoin transactions can take 10 minutes to over an hour to fully confirm. Great for large amounts, not so great if you want to split a pizza with a friend. That is the problem the Lightning Network was built to solve.
What Is Wrong With Regular Transactions. On the main network, called the base layer, your transaction joins a global lineup. Miners pick it up, verify it, and stamp it into a block. That is intentionally slow and secure, which is fine for big transfers or long-term savings. For everyday payments, waiting 30 minutes to buy a coffee is not convenient.
The Bar Tab Analogy. Instead of tapping your card after every drink, you open a tab and settle up once at the end of the night. Lightning works the same way. Two people, or a person and a business, open a payment channel and send Bitcoin back and forth almost instantly, as many times as they like, without touching the main blockchain. When they close the channel, only the final balance is recorded. Fees can be a fraction of a cent.
Why Canadians Should Care. Lightning makes Bitcoin usable for small, everyday payments: a coffee in seconds, five bucks to a friend, or a tiny tip to a creator without the fee eating it. Popular wallets like Phoenix, Muun and Wallet of Satoshi have it built in. It has been live since 2018 and has processed billions of dollars, but it suits smaller amounts best. Think of your main Bitcoin wallet as the bank account and your Lightning wallet as the twenty dollars in your pocket.
The RapidEX View: You do not need to understand the technical plumbing to use it. Download a Lightning-compatible wallet, load it with a small amount, and send a payment to a friend. If someone tells you Bitcoin is too slow for real-world use, this is the comeback.
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